The black swan

"Before the discovery of Australia, it was believed in the Old World that all swans were white, a belief well established, as confirmed by empirical evidence. The first sighting of a black swan must have been an interesting surprise to some ornithologists (and others who care particularly about the color of birds), but that is not the point of the story. A single observation can invalidate a general statement that arose and was confirmed by millennia during which we had seen millions of white swans alone. All it takes is one (and, I'm told, kind of ugly) black bird. In this (personal) essay, I take the risk and claim, against many of our habits of thought, that the world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown, and the highly improbable at the same time that we spend our time focusing on the known and the repetitive. I also venture to assert that, despite our progress and the development of knowledge, or perhaps because of the progress and development of knowledge, the future will be less and less predictable, while both human nature and the social "sciences" show to conspire to hide the idea from us." For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the bestseller The Fallacy of Chance, the Black Swan underlies all events in the world, from the emergence of religions to events in our personal lives. The Black Swan is an extremely improbable event with three main characteristics: it is unpredictable, it has huge consequences, and after its arrival we wish to make it appear less random and more predictable than it actually is. Taleb is an extremely entertaining writer, with wit, audacity and unusual stories to tell. He masterfully uses his erudition on subjects ranging from cognitive psychology and business to probability theory and—he explains that we cultivate delusions of knowing more than we do by limiting our knowledge to the trivial and the trivial, so big events continue to they surprise us and shape our world. Impressive, profound and universal, Black Swan is a landmark book that could be a Black Swan. They said of the book: "Black Swan changed the way I saw the world." –Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize in Economics "Confirms his position as the go-to guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and would-be entrepreneur." –Sunday Times "Great fun, challenging... easy to get into." –Financial Times "Highly intelligent." -Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times "Jumps like no superhero of the mind." -Boyd Tonkin, Independent "The greatest prophetic voice of all." -GQ "A fascinating study of how we often fall victim to the unexpected." -Guardian "Changed the modern way of thinking." -The Times “Taleb's writing style is a combination of Stephen Cobert and Montaigne. We happily walk with him down the road of error that has to do with confirmation bias and the narrative of the unfounded." -The Wall Street Journal

Category: Studies - Essays
Pages: 432
Dimensions: 17 x 24 cm.
Color: Monochrome
Cover: Hardcover